Why USC Will Win the National Championship
In this college football season preview, I'm not going to talk about quarterbacks and defensive backs, veteran seniors and breakout freshman, or coaches and coordinators.
Why not?
Because as long as the Bowl Championship Series is in place, none of that will matter as much as one thing: your schedule.
The computer doesn't care a whole lot about who you play or the strength of your conference, it cares mostly about how many losses you have and when they happen.
Before the 2007 season, I predicted LSU would win the National Championship. Not because Les Miles was a great coach or because Matt Flynn was a good field general, but because they played most of their rivals at home.
I figured they'd be able to beat Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Florida, and Auburn because all of those games took place in Baton Rouge. Their only tough road games were at Kentucky and Alabama and so I decided they had the best chance of being in the top two of the final BCS rankings.
Because you can't win the title game unless you're in it.
The Tigers wound up losing in triple overtime at Kentucky and then again in three extra sessions at home against Arkansas, but because their schedule was favorable enough, they were still able to win 11 games and the SEC Championship. This put them in the BCS Championship game against an overmatched Ohio State team that they were able to beat by two touchdowns.
USC was ranked ahead of LSU in the preseason polls last year, but I didn't pick them to go all the way because I figured their difficult schedule wouldn't allow them to finish the year in the BCS's top two.
The Trojans had to play at Nebraska, Oregon, Cal, and Arizona State. While their incredible upset loss to Stanford is what kept them out of the title game, they probably would have been able to overcome that one loss had it not been that they also fell to the Ducks.
But I believe this year will be different for Southern California, and it's all about the schedule.
Below, I break down the schedules for each of the teams ranked in the Top 25 of the preseason Coaches’ Poll, explaining why I think each school will or will not make it to the BCS title game.
1 - Georgia (Predicted Regular Season Record: 10-2, 7-1)
The Bulldogs are the top ranked team in the land right now, but that might not last for too long due to their hellacious schedule. Georgia plays five teams ranked in the Top 25 (at ASU, Tennessee, at LSU, Florida, at Auburn) and another four games against schools that are just outside the rankings (at South Carolina, Alabama, at Kentucky, Georgia Tech).
I've got to figure the Dogs will lose two of those difficult five road games, which should leave them on the outside looking in. Even if they can beat out Tennessee and Florida to earn a spot in the SEC Championship game.
2 - USC (12-0, 9-0)
Possibly the biggest regular season game of the year will be played on Sept. 13, when Southern Cal hosts Ohio State. If the Trojans can get by the Buckeyes, it's relatively smooth sailing from there. USC gets to play Oregon, Arizona State, California, and Notre Dame at home and doesn't have to travel to a preseason Top 25 team all year.
Even if Southern Cal loses to OSU in September they'll have enough time to climb back up the rankings by the end of the year. I believe USC will beat West Virginia (see below) to capture the National Championship.
3 - Ohio State (10-2, 7-1)
Even if the Buckeyes can travel cross country and beat USC in front of more than 100,000 rabid Trojan fans they'd still have to be nearly perfect against a tough Big Ten schedule. Which includes road games versus No. 12 Wisconsin and No. 19 Illinois, as well as home bouts with No. 22 Penn State and No. 24 Michigan.
I think OSU will lose to USC and drop at least one of those four conference games, which will keep them out of the BCS title game.
4 - Oklahoma (11-1, 7-1)
The Sooners have a pretty favorable schedule because they play all of their really tough games (Texas, Kansas, and Texas Tech) at home. However, with eight games against teams who received votes in the preseason poll and another difficult matchup in the Big XII Championship (probably against Missouri), OU is bound to lose a game.
In the end, I think they are going to be one of those teams rooting for Pittsburgh to knock off West Virginia at the end of the year again. When it's all said and done, I think the Mountaineers have a better shot at running the table than Oklahoma.
5 - Florida (10-2, 6-2)
The Gators play No. 18 Tennessee and top-ranked Georgia on the road. With games against No. 6 LSU, South Carolina, and Florida State, as well, Florida will be lucky to lose just twice.
6 - LSU (9-3, 5-3)
The road games aren't as easy this year for the defending champs. The Tigers travel to No. 11 Auburn, No. 5 Florida, and South Carolina. They also have to play Georgia and Alabama at home.
7 - Missouri (11-1, 7-1)
The Tigers have road bouts with Nebraska and Texas, as well as home games against Illinois and Kansas. Even if they can get through all of that, they'll probably have Oklahoma waiting for them in the Big XII title game.
8 - West Virginia (12-0, 7-0)
The Mountaineers were the big winners when Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College jumped ship a few years ago to go play in the ACC. With the departure of those three powerhouses, WVU was left with a relatively easy path to the BCS title game every year.
In 2007, only a huge upset against Pittsburgh in the final week of the season kept the 'Eers out of the championship, and the road is even easier in '08. West Virginia gets to play Rutgers (without Ray Rice), Cincinnati, and South Florida at home and only has to go on the road for UConn, Louisville (without Brian Brohm), and Pittsburgh (I think they'll be better prepared this year).
The only question mark for me is an Oct. 23 game with No. 11 Auburn, but that's at home and is early enough in the season that WVU will be able to recover in the standings if they do lose. Plus, they don't have to play a conference title game, which usually helps.
I'm not saying West Virginia will be the second best team in the country at the end of the year, but I think their schedule will allow them to make it to the National Championship game, where they get pummeled by USC.
9 - Clemson (11-1, 7-1)
The Tigers have to play road games against solid conference foes Wake Forest, Boston College, Florida State, and Virginia. I say they lose at least one of those, keeping them out of both the ACC and BCS Championship games.
10 - Texas (9-3, 5-3)
The Longhorns travel to No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 14 Texas Tech, and No. 13 Kansas. They also play No. 7 Missouri at home. There are a few losses in there.
11 - Auburn (10-2, 7-1)
The Tigers get to play Georgia at home, but even if they beat them there, they'll probably have to face the Bulldogs again in the SEC Championship game. Auburn also has a non-conference road bout at West Virginia.
12 - Wisconsin (10-2, 7-1)
The good thing about Wisconsin's schedule is that they play all of their tough games at the beginning of the season. Because of this, even if they lose a couple games to Fresno State, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State or Illinois, they'll have three weeks at the end of November (Indiana, Minnesota, Cal Poly) when they should be winning, while other teams are losing, allowing the Badgers to climb the rankings. I don't think they'll get all the way to the top, though.
13 - Kansas (9-3, 6-2)
No magic again this year for the Jayhawks. They have to play South Florida, Oklahoma, and Missouri, all on the road.
14 - Texas Tech (9-3, 5-3)
The Red Raiders have road contests against Texas A&M, Kansas, and Oklahoma.
15 - Virginia Tech (11-1, 8-0)
The ACC is almost as easily winnable for the Hokies as the Big East is for the Mountaineers. They don't have a single preseason Top 25 team on their schedule, but I figure they'll lose one of their challenging road games at Nebraska, Boston College or Florida State. Still, I think VT will beat Wake Forest in the ACC title game, but will have too far to climb up the BCS rankings to make it into the National Championship.
16 - Arizona State (10-2, 6-2)
The Sun Devils have a couple of difficult road games to open October. They play at Cal and USC.
17 - BYU (11-1, 7-1)
Boise State, Hawaii, and now BYU. Even if the Cougars can get by non-conference battles with Washington and UCLA, they'll still have a hungry Utah team waiting for them in Salt Lake City on Nov. 22.
18 - Tennessee (8-4, 5-3)
The Volunteers have to travel to UCLA, Auburn, Georgia, and South Carolina.
19 - Illinois (8-4, 5-3)
The Illini have one of the most difficult schedules in the country. It includes road games at Missouri, Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
20 - Oregon (9-3, 5-3)
The Ducks travel to Southern Cal, Arizona State, and California.
21 - South Florida (10-2, 6-2)
The Big East Championship and quite possibly who plays USC in the BCS title game could be decided when the Bulls travel to West Virginia on Dec. 6.
22 - Penn State (10-2, 6-2)
The Nittany Lions play at Wisconsin and Ohio State.
23 - Wake Forest (11-1, 7-1)
The Demon Deacons are my sleeper team for 2008. The get to play Clemson and Boston College at home and their toughest road game is at FSU on Sept. 20. I don't think they'll get by Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game, though.
24 - Michigan (10-2, 6-2)
If the Wolverines can get by Miami of Ohio on Sept. 6, they'll still probably lose at Penn State and Ohio State.
25 - Fresno State (10-2, 7-1)
The Bulldogs have a tough enough non-conference schedule that if they run the table, they should be able to move up the polls enough to grab a BCS game. If they can get past Rutgers, Wisconsin, and UCLA, they'll still have a tough game at Boise State on Nov. 28.
ACC Championship Game
Virginia Tech (12-1) def. Wake Forest (11-2)
Big XII Championship Game
Oklahoma (12-1) def. Missouri (11-2)
SEC Championship Game
Georgia (11-2) def. Auburn (10-3)
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
USC (13-0) def. West Virginia (12-1)
